What's worse - acknowledging that Ronald Reagan had a profound impact on the American political system, or actually employing Republican fear-mongering tactics in a campaign?
29 February 2008
07 February 2008
predictions are in
The most significant development to emerge from Tuesday's Mega Primary was the propulsion of John McCain to indisputable Republican front-runner status. This revelation, cemented by Romney's withdrawal today, should help move the Democratic decision along, but it probably won't.
From today's George Will column:
Tuesday's voting armed Democratic voters with the name of the candidate that their nominee will face in the fall. Will their purblind party now nominate the most polarizing person in contemporary politics, knowing that Republicans will nominate the person who tries to compensate for his weakness among conservatives with his strength among independent voters who are crucial to winning the White House?
Lots of Democrats have busied themselves with long-winded and specious discussions about the impact of racism on an Obama ticket in the general election. Their concerns are not unwarranted; however, their blindness to Hillary-hate (which I believe will be a more potent force in November than racism could ever be) is astounding. George Will is right - no one dooms Democratic candidates better than Dems themselves.
That being said, I finally feel prepared to make some official predictions about November.
The most likely scenario:
McCain/Huckabee vs. Clinton/Clark.
McCain wins by carrying all of the usual suspects for Republicans, including Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and either Oregon or Wisconsin, making 2008 the most decisive victory in the electoral college since 1996.
Mike Huckabee has spent the last week ingratiating himself to McCain, though now they are the only two left in the race. If he drops out soon, McCain will tap him for VP for credibility with conservatives and Southerners. On the Dem side, General Wesley Clark is a consummate Clinton loyalist, and was the Clintons' nominee in 2004. Even though he's not a war hero like McCain (and is, in fact, disliked by many in the military because of issues in Bosnia in 1994 and statements made about NATO shortly thereafter), he adds further military (and Southern) heft to the Clinton ticket.
Why will they win? That's fairly simple - conservatives don't like McCain, but they despise Hillary Clinton and will unquestionably come out to vote against her. (At the risk of overstating this -- McCain is not beloved of evangelicals, and James Dobson has pledged not to support him. But however much conservative Christians may feel wronged or dismissed by McCain, many see Hillary Clinton as actually evil. This is not just because she's a Democrat, either, as evidenced by Obama winning Relevant Magazine's "Who Would Jesus Vote For?" unscientific poll against EVERY other candidate.) Independents love McCain, and while they can't be said to absolutely loathe Hillary Clinton, Obama has consistently blown her away when they vote. And there are simply not enough Democrats in the United States to carry someone to the White House without help from Independents.
If Obama pulls it out against Hillary by August, things could turn out slightly differently. But since the Clintons are for the Clintons (as opposed to the Democratic Party, or the United States for that matter), he will emerge seriously bloodied unless he somehow locks up the nomination within a month.
Oh well, Dems. Better luck in 2012.
(Note: I really hope I'm totally wrong, especially about the first hypothetical domino to fall - a Hillary Clinton nomination.)
From today's George Will column:
Tuesday's voting armed Democratic voters with the name of the candidate that their nominee will face in the fall. Will their purblind party now nominate the most polarizing person in contemporary politics, knowing that Republicans will nominate the person who tries to compensate for his weakness among conservatives with his strength among independent voters who are crucial to winning the White House?
Perhaps. The Republican Party's not-so-secret weapon always is the Democratic Party, with its entertaining thirst for living dangerously.
[Full Text.]Lots of Democrats have busied themselves with long-winded and specious discussions about the impact of racism on an Obama ticket in the general election. Their concerns are not unwarranted; however, their blindness to Hillary-hate (which I believe will be a more potent force in November than racism could ever be) is astounding. George Will is right - no one dooms Democratic candidates better than Dems themselves.
That being said, I finally feel prepared to make some official predictions about November.
The most likely scenario:
McCain/Huckabee vs. Clinton/Clark.
McCain wins by carrying all of the usual suspects for Republicans, including Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and either Oregon or Wisconsin, making 2008 the most decisive victory in the electoral college since 1996.
Mike Huckabee has spent the last week ingratiating himself to McCain, though now they are the only two left in the race. If he drops out soon, McCain will tap him for VP for credibility with conservatives and Southerners. On the Dem side, General Wesley Clark is a consummate Clinton loyalist, and was the Clintons' nominee in 2004. Even though he's not a war hero like McCain (and is, in fact, disliked by many in the military because of issues in Bosnia in 1994 and statements made about NATO shortly thereafter), he adds further military (and Southern) heft to the Clinton ticket.
Why will they win? That's fairly simple - conservatives don't like McCain, but they despise Hillary Clinton and will unquestionably come out to vote against her. (At the risk of overstating this -- McCain is not beloved of evangelicals, and James Dobson has pledged not to support him. But however much conservative Christians may feel wronged or dismissed by McCain, many see Hillary Clinton as actually evil. This is not just because she's a Democrat, either, as evidenced by Obama winning Relevant Magazine's "Who Would Jesus Vote For?" unscientific poll against EVERY other candidate.) Independents love McCain, and while they can't be said to absolutely loathe Hillary Clinton, Obama has consistently blown her away when they vote. And there are simply not enough Democrats in the United States to carry someone to the White House without help from Independents.
If Obama pulls it out against Hillary by August, things could turn out slightly differently. But since the Clintons are for the Clintons (as opposed to the Democratic Party, or the United States for that matter), he will emerge seriously bloodied unless he somehow locks up the nomination within a month.
Oh well, Dems. Better luck in 2012.
(Note: I really hope I'm totally wrong, especially about the first hypothetical domino to fall - a Hillary Clinton nomination.)
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