21 December 2007

the chicken or the egg

Slate Magazine has a useful feature under its 'News & Politics' section. 'Election Scorecard' is a handy compilation of the latest polls, broken down nationally and by early voting states. It aggregates lots of polls, shows averages, side by side comparisons, and graphs. It's readable and informative.

The latest update continues the trend of the last few weeks - the Obama/Clinton gap closing in Iowa (O's ahead there), New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

A snippet from the latest update:
A CBS News survey in South Carolina (PDF) reports that fresh ideas (45 percent) are slightly preferred over the right experience (39 percent) ... Of those who think experience is more important, 57 percent support Clinton; 17 percent Obama. Among those who think fresh ideas are more important, the numbers are inverse: 57 percent support Obama; 17 percent Clinton.

The winner in South Carolina may be determined not by whichever candidate voters like best, but which message—change or experience—they are attracted to most.

This is a case of the chicken or the egg, which unfortunately is not mentioned here. Because Hillary Clinton's major weaknesses in a general election are her likability and trustworthiness, I think it's perfectly likely that people are first drawn to Obama as a person, and then they come around to his message.

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